Euro-AICN: The Oscar Nominations...

Father Geek here with our man in Rome, Robert Bernocchi, and a pretty damn good column Robert put together on the up coming Academy Awards Nominations. I don't know if my predictions will hold true, buuuuuut I stand by them as the Best Choices... in my humble opinion, and the Oscar's should honor them. I also must say here that American Splendor deserves Academy recognition, however I don't expect to see it happen. Now here's Robert and our Euro-AICN column...

This week, he have a very special column for you. This is an survey focused on frontrunners and outsiders involved in the Oscar race.

Well, after an analogous survey conducted last june, I asked again the same experts what are the frontrunners now and what changed in their opinions since june. And well, the predicted winner is ROTK again. It is the favorite to grab Oscars as best movie, best director and a lot of nominations in technical categories.

The experts involved are:

• Jesús Alonso (Cifra 2’s Mania)
• Walt Mas (Oscarscene)
• Sid (OscarRace)
• Neil Young (Jigsaw Lounge)
• Father Geek (International Editor for AICN)

For Neil Young predictions, ** indicates the foreseen Oscar winner.

Which movie do you consider the frontrunner now?

J.A.: Return of the King, as the general consensus indicates, is locked for a Best Picture nod, and more than the frontrunner for the final victory. New Line is determined to get it, the Academy seems receptive to the idea of rewarding the LotR trilogy and it looks almost as a sure thing as Schindler's List back in 1993 and Titanic back in 1997. No wonder there will be another "The Piano" or "L.A. Confidential" menacing RotK's dominance, but in the end, Hollywood will do what they know they must do.

W.M.: I still consider Return of the King to be the frontrunner. I'm not completely confident it'll win, but as of right now there is no other movie that I see as being a frontrunner. Cold Mountain, The Last Samurai, House of Sand and Fog, all could but we'll have to wait a bit longer to find out for sure.

Sid: Still Lord of the Rings. I know it sounds too good to be true, but so far, no movie has come even close to Jackson's closing chapter. I do not foresee a win for Big Fish (it is also fantastical, so the Academy will choose LOTR), Master and Commander (Epic, a man's journey despite mixed reviews, the Miramax machine will be in full gear because they have nothing to fall back on. But LOTR, at this stage anyway, remains the clear leader.

N.Y.: ROTK

Father Geek: Return of the King

What are the most important changes in your predictions since May?

J.A. : Well, checking out my May predictions (Return of the King, Cold Mountain, Master and Commander, Kill Bill and Matchstick Men) it has turned out to be that three of them were actually safe bets and will be fighting for the Best Picture nods. Kill Bill has turned out to be too violent and gory and Matchstick Men, while having scored good reviews, will be no competition for other comedies like Finding Nemo, Love Actually or Intolerable Cruelty. Basically, I'm thinking that the Best Picture race has just suddenly narrowed to ONLY six serious contenders and a group of - some more extreme than others - longshots.

W.M.: I actually still have the same five movies in my top five. The only difference is that The Human Stain was in my top 10 and now it's failed, but other than that, things are still the same.

Sid: The most obvious big change is the rise of Mystic River its parallels to Forrest Gump may help its chances, but since it is Burton helming the project, you never know how the Academy wil react.

N.Y.: Not sure

What are your five favourite movies to be nominated in the Best Picture category?

J.A. : The 1.000.000 $ question. OK. Let's see... for order of likelyhood...

- Return of the King: Locked, as pointed out previously.

- Mystic River: The Critical darling, this year's probable L.A. Confidential in front of the Return of the King's Titanic.

- Big Fish: Despite Tim Burton's previous track record with the Academy (always snubbed), this time it is the heart-warmer movie that always gets in (many people still think it is going to be Seabiscuit, but let's get real, that horse didn't exactly win the race with reviewers and audiences, it is not THAT loved).

- Master and Commander: It screams Oscar. It has three studios backing it. It's a Peter Weir movie (The Truman Show, Dead Poets Society, Witness, The Year of Living Dangerously, among others). It stars Russell Crowe. It has a classic story. It is pure Oscar bait.

- Cold Mountain: We thought it was locked. Time has passed and it ain't. However, it is Miramax's only reasonable bet (Kill Bill vol.I is too violent, and The Human Stain isn't scoring great reviews), so Harvey will go all for this one.

Alternate: House of Sand and Fog: Dreamworks NEEDS this nod, and also we should bear in mind that with Big Fish, Return of the King, Cold Mountain and Master and Commander, the Academy members may want a relief from too much costume overdose.

Longer shots: In America seems to be building the right buzz, Lost in Translation can make it, Finding Nemo is going to be - correctly - pushed for Best Picture by Disney, Love Actually seems a more than reasonable bet for a Comedy spot, and The Last Samurai can never be counted out (however, Warner Bros. doesn't seem strong enough to push a double movie combo at Best Picture).

Extreme Longshots: Mona Lisa Smile, given Julia Roberts' power, The Missing (or Ron Howard's follow up to his Oscar), Seabiscuit (or the shameless Oscar bait of the year), 21 Grams (despite the previous buzz, there is not a consensus about its quality), Intolerable Cruelty, The Statement and the chance of a foreign sensation rushing in (Swimming Pool, The Barbarian Invasions, Carandiru...). Highly unlikely, anyways.

W.M.: (in alpha order)

- Cold Mountain-I'm really just not sure about this movie. After the seeing the trailer, I now have more faith in it, but still... We'll see.

- House of Sand and Fog-many are predicting Mystic River to take the "serious" movie spot, but I think it will be forgotten by January and House of Sand and Fog will be nominated.

- The Last Samurai-I cannot believe so many people underestimate this one. I think it will be the movie to beat in December. The early word is that the movie is great and it will sure make the most money out of all the Picture contenders, save for Return of the King.

- Return of the King-LOCK.

- Seabiscuit-people gave up too soon on this one. It did great at the box office and it is such an uplifting movie, Academy loves those. Also, just because last year there were no Summer nominee, it doesn't mean that there won't be one this year.

Sid:

- Lord of the Rings: A mortal lock -- no matter what anyone says. It WILL BE NOMINATED.

- Mystic River -- I'd say a lock, but WB have never been good bets for the Oscars.

- Cold Mountain -- Despite mixed preview reports, Miramax will ensure it gets in.

- Big Fish -- Burton's comeback arrives with heavy buzz.

- House of Sand and Fog -- I'm least sure abou this one, because I've read the book and I don't know how the Academy will respond to the end. It might be too dark, but its DreamWorks so I'll keep it in.

The ones most likely to replace it are in order -- In America (buliding huge buzz), Master and Commander, Seabiscuit or 21 Grams.

N.Y.:

** The Lord of the Rings : The Return of the King

* Seabiscuit

* Cold Mountain

* Mystic River

* Finding Nemo

Father Geek:

Return of the King

Cold Mountain

Mystic River

21 grams

Big Fish

And the five favorite directors?

J.A.: Peter Jackson (Return of the King) and Clint Eastwood (Mystic River) seem locked. Tim Burton (Big Fish) and Peter Weir (Master and Commander) will probably also get their spot, given their prestige and snubs (from nods in Burton's case and from wins in Weir's). That leaves one spot. Minghella, you would say. Wrong. He won with The English Patient only 7 years ago (and sweeping!) and actually isn't as well regarded as the four previous names, so he has a disadvantage... this fifth spot (remember, it's the directors who vote for the nods) goes usually to a true auter or an indie (Almodóvar, Egoyan, Kieslowski are among the best examples)... so my guess is that it is between Gus van Sant for his Cannes sensation Elephant and Sofia Coppola for her critical darling Lost in Translation (and Coppola is a very strong surname in Hollywood). Howeve! r, I should add to the mix that Robert Altman has a new movie (The Company), that Jim Sheridan's In America might surprise in the big nods, that Michael Winterbottom's In this world can be a sensation (and fits in that indie feel) and that the Academy loves well-backed debuts as Vadim Perelman's House of Sand and Fog... and even the chance of good old Tarantino sneaking in with Kill Bill vol. 1 So...

Peter Jackson (Return of the King)

Tim Burton (Big Fish)

Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)

Peter Weir (Master and Commander)

Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation)

Alternate: Gus van Sant (Elephant)

Longer shots: Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain), Jim Sheridan (In America) and Vadim Perelman (House of Sand and Fog)

W.M.:

Clint Eastwood-Mystic River

Peter Jackson-Return of the King

Anthony Minghella-Cold Mountain

Vadim Perelman-House of Sand and Fog

Edward Zwick-The Last Samurai

Sid:

Generally the same as the movies, except the possibility that Perelman will be knocked off in favor of another name. As of now, I'd say --

Peter Jackson

Clint Eastwood

Tim Burton

Anthony Minghella

Sofia Coppola -- this is just a hunch. I believe the family name will overcome the gender bias. (With Inarittu, Sheridan and Weir in waiting)

N.Y.:

** Peter Jackson - Return of the King

* Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

* Anthony Minghella - Cold Mountain

* Peter Weir - Master and Commander

* Tim Burton - Big Fish

Father Geek:

Peter Jackson

Tim Burton

Sofia Coppola

Clint Eastwood

Alejandro González Iñárritu

And the five favorite actors in a leading role?

J.A.: This is a bit trickier! OK... let's give it a try... Sean Penn is in, unless huge surprise! His bet will probably be Mystic River (however his 21 Grams role may cost him a nomination due to split voting!). Bill Murray is heavily buzzed also for Lost in Translation, and I'd say he's in, too, for a - finally! - nod and possible win. Out of this couple, everything gets more shaky. Ewan MacGregor's in the right movie and with the right backing (Down with Love's performance might not be forgotten, specially if he's backed for a Comedy Globe nod) to finally get his richly deserved nod (he was snubbed both for Trainspotting and Moulin Rouge!), Tom Cruise and Russell Crowe will use their star power to be nominated once more, Tim Robbins might get in thanks to Mystic River (that is, if he survives the Penn hurricane), Viggo Mortensen may surprise thanks to the whole trilogy remembrance ! with Return of the King, Ben Kingsley is said to be a sure thing in House of Sand and Fog, Jude Law is starring in one of the epics of the year (Cold Mountain), and even Johnny Depp's Pirates of the Caribbean role might surprise (even thought that logic dictates that he should go supporting to stand a chance of getting the nod). Right now I would say...

Sean Penn, Mystic River

Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog

Jude Law, Cold Mountain

Russell Crowe, Master and Commander

Alternates: Tom Cruise (The Last Samurai), Tim Robbins (Mystic River) and Viggo Mortensen (Return of the King)

W.M.:

Tom Cruise-The Last Samurai

Ben Kingsley-House of Sand and Fog

Jude Law-Cold Mountain

Bill Murray-Lost in Translation

Sean Penn-21 Grams

Sid:

Sean Penn, Mystic River

Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog

Jude Law, Cold Mountain

Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai

(alternates: Penn, 21 Grams; Crowe, Master and Commander; Jones, The Missing)

N.Y.:

* Bill Murray - Lost In Translation

** Sean Penn - Mystic River

* Ben Kingsley - House of Sand and Fog

* Tom Cruise - The Last Samurai

* Jude Law - Cold Mountain

Father Geek:

Sean Penn

Sean Astin

Bill Murray

Jude Law

Ben Kingsley

And the five favorite actresses in a leading role?

J.A. : Easier... Naomi Watts will get the nod and probably win for 21 Grams, specially given how snubbed she was for Mulholland Drive. Jennifer Connelly will get her second nod (and the first as leading) for House of Sand and Fog, and Nicole Kidman will probably get also a third consecutive Best Actress nod for Cold Mountain. Cate Blanchett's The Missing performance seems like a longer shot, but I'd say she's in also and the same goes for Samantha Morton's In America (remember she was snubbed from a nod and possible win for Minority Report last year). That means:

Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog

Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain

Cate Blanchett, The Missing

Samantha Morton, In America

Longer shots: Meg Ryan (In the Cut), Julia Roberts (Mona Lisa Smile), Gwyneth Palthrow (Sylvia), Laura Linney (Mystic River), Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation, but she's being cleverly campaigned as supporting!) and of course possible last minute surprises (I wouldn't count out any actress from Calendar Girls, specially Helen Mirren or from Love Actually, specially Emma Thompson).

W.M.:

Cate Blanchett-The Missing

Jennifer Connelly-House of Sand and Fog

Nicole Kidman-Cold Mountain

Julia Roberts-Mona Lisa Smile

Naomi Watts-21 Grams

Sid:

Cate Blanchett, The Missing

Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain

Naomi Watts, 21 Grams -- unless this goes supporting, in which case she will certainly score in that category

Samantha Morton, In America

Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog

(alternates: Wood, Thirteen; Mirren, Calendar Girls; Keaton, Something's Gotta Give)

N.Y.:

** Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

* Gwyneth Paltrow - Sylvia

* Jennifer Connelly - House of Sand and Fog

* Scarlett Johansson - Girl With A Pearl Earring

* Diane Keaton - Something's Gotta Give

Father Geek:

Scarlett Johansson

Naomi Watts

Nicole Kidman

Jennifer Connelly

Helen Mirren

Which movie will get more nominations?

J.A.: It will be a close race between Return of the King and Big Fish with Master and Commander and Cold Mountain also really close to those numbers... Mystic River may get a bunch of nods thanks specially to its performers... and apart from that, there may be good showings of The Last Samurai, The Matrix: Revolutions, Pirates of the Caribbean, House of Sand and Fog and maybe Finding Nemo (sound/music cathegories and screenplay may add to 4-5 nods including the obvious Animated Feature nod and win).

W.M.: The Last Samurai and Cold Mountain each with 11 Nominations Return of the King with 10 Nominations

Sid: Probably LOTR, if the Academy doesn't think that its all the same technical work as the first two films. Cold Mountain is an epic, so its likely to score in a lot of categories, including the acting categories -- where it certainly has an edge over LOTR. I guess its between these two for the numbers.

N.Y.: ROTK

Father Geek: Return of the King

Do you think that the MPAA-screeners affair will influence in some way the Oscar race?

J.A. : It is already influencing it, but it's too soon to tell in which way it might affect it... there's a possible reaction against the stablishment that could back more "indie" proposals and also there's the possibility that it may end with only the more mainstream movies getting nods (that is, with the absence of smaller films in the nods). However, I think that this possible polarization may cancel each other and we might have in the end a similar group of nominees to other years. This may encourage people to get more to the movies, which is always a good thing, isn't it?

W.M.: Yes, a little. If there were no screeners at all then yeah smaller movies would get shifted, but now that Academy members will get screeners, they will be able to see the tapes. However, there will be some effect, as smaller movies probably won't have as much buzz entering the race, because they won't be able to be viewed by smaller critics groups and other award bodies.

Sid: As of now, I think that its effect might not be substantial, after the middle ground that Pierson and Valenti have reached. It could hurt the small films which haven't been released or screened so far (The Statement), but I think the studios are doing their best to get their films seen, so it'll probably not make much of a difference.

N.Y.: No

Father Geek: Not This Year

That's all for today See you next week

Robert Bernocchi

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